# Poker Winrates

The standard deviation of the loose oranges is higher than the standard deviation of the "medium" oranges. Don't worry, it doesn't happen very often. If you are interested in the equation though, check out this very straightforward article: There are 2 important things to note about this graph of your winrates:. The lower the frequency, the less likely you are to achieve that winrate. You'll notice that the average widths of these two sets of 5 oranges are the same , despite the width of each individual orange in each set being quite different. The short answer is it takes A LOT of hands to form anywhere near an accurate winrate.

## An introduction to standard deviation.

If you are interested in the equation though, check out this very straightforward article: This standard deviation video on youtube is also very helpful. Okay, I can't leave any stone unturned. The SD of the loose oranges is 3.

These numbers tell us the average spread. Okay, that's enough about oranges. How does standard deviation in poker work and what does it tell you about your winrate?

Well, instead of measuring oranges, what if you split up your poker career in to hand mini-sessions or "chunks" , and measured your winrate for each of these sessions? From a set of results like this, you could work out your mean average winrate this will give you the average winrate stat that you're used to seeing and also your standard deviation.

The more your winrate varies in each chunk of hands you play, the bigger your standard deviation will be. Additionally, if you plotted the frequency of the winrates how often each winrate occurs over each of these hand chunks in a graph, it would look something like this:. There are 2 important things to note about this graph of your winrates:. This makes sense, because more often than not your winrate will remain close to your average, but there will be rare occasions where it ends up being quite far from average.

So, we know that if we plotted a graph of our individual winrates from many small hand sessions it would form a bell curve, with our most frequent winrates collecting around the centre. The lower your std dev, the thinner the bell curve. The higher your std dev, the fatter it will be to account for the wide variety of winrates. Because this is just how bell curves work. Here's another bell curve graph with some notes to help you understand what's going on. For more information, here's a short wikipedia article that actually isn't overly complicated: In this example we're using poker tracker BBs Big Bets , which are equal to 2x the size of the big blind i.

If you have a LAG loose-aggressive playing style you will have a high standard deviation. This makes sense, as you should already know that maniacs and LAGs experience a lot of variance. On the other hand, if you are a nit that only ever plays premium hands, your standard deviation will be low. If your SD is far outside of this bracket, you're probably playing too tight or too loose to achieve an optimum winrate.

November 7th, , 4: This brings up the inevitable question: Originally Posted by KingCurtis. November 7th, , 5: November 9th, , 6: November 9th, , Originally Posted by Monoxide. November 9th, , 1: Originally Posted by Gorblid.

November 10th, , Anything under a 50k hand sample is just variance imo. November 10th, , 1: Originally Posted by Jagsti. July 3rd, , This is not the question though. They talked about how playing multiple tables will effect your earning ratio when calculating your profits. The amount you made over TIME will be the only difference.

Now did I just dig myself a big hole or am I making sense? Please explain it to me like a child if I am wrong. Thanks Hope to hear back soon. Originally Posted by tmac See the software page for more information. Or to put it another way, when will your win rate become accurate and converge toward your actual long-term win rate? The short answer is it takes A LOT of hands to form anywhere near an accurate winrate.

As far as numbers of hands go, working out a win rate with anything less than k hands is prone to a lot of variance. To work out winrates in terms of time, we need to have a rough idea of how many hands we play in an hour.

The rough figures for cash games are as follows:. To get your daily, weekly, monthly win rate and so on, you just multiply your hourly winrate by the hours you expect to play in a day, week, month and so on. What is your hourly winrate? You play an average of 3 hours a day. What is your daily win rate?